2024 Real Estate Market - My Crystal Ball

Happy New Year, Neighbors and Friends!

As I reflect on my 20-year real estate career, I can't help but appreciate the lessons learned and the resilience witnessed in our market. From the initial optimism in 2004 to the humbling experiences during the Great Recession and the uncertainties of the pandemic, each phase has shaped my understanding of housing, markets, and, most importantly, people.

The 2008 financial crisis was a defining time, revealing the consequences of greed and unscrupulous dealings. It was disheartening to witness families facing hardships, forced to walk away from homes they poured their hearts into. I remember representing the seller at a closing where the buyer’s attorney was trying to talk his clients into walking away from the deal. The buyer had two loans. One an 80% loan that was way higher mortgage rate than the market at the time. Then they had a 20% loan that was over 15%! The lender was walking away with more money than anyone else on that transaction. They were preying on those buyers. Sure enough, when I drove past the house 18 months later it was in foreclosure. The subsequent market changes and the slow recovery process by 2012-2013 marked a turning point for the real estate industry. The next 7-8 years were a nice, steady recovery.

Fast forward to 2020, the shockwaves of the pandemic challenged us all. The initial fear and uncertainty impacted both the healthcare system, witnessed firsthand by my wife at Mercy Hospital, and the real estate market. Yet, as the government intervened and financial support flowed, an unexpected surge occurred. Lower interest rates and increased disposable income and more time on hand for everyone led to an unprecedented real estate boom in 2021 and 2022. Like nothing ever seen, the market went into hyper-drive. We had 40-50 showings per day and 10-15 offers for homes. Prices soared.

In 2023, we experienced a welcome slowdown, with a solid market but less frenetic than the previous years. Homes in good condition and strategically priced continued to sell quickly and for more than list price, but the overall buyer pool decreased. Homes that were not priced well began to sit on the market for a longer period of time. Now, as we look ahead to 2024, predicting the future remains uncertain due to global conflicts and internal challenges.

Based on current information, I anticipate the first quarter of 2024 to mirror recent months. Well-maintained homes, priced appropriately, will likely sell swiftly. However, the rest of the year will be influenced by two critical factors: mortgage rates and inventory.

Lower mortgage rates attract more buyers, but an increase in inventory would stabilize the market. If rates remain low and inventory remains scarce, sellers will continue to dominate, leading to higher prices. If rates stay high and inventory increases, prices would stabilize or even decrease slightly. If rates stay high and inventory doesn’t increase, then it looks like 2023 again.

Monitoring mortgage rates and home inventory will be crucial indicators of the market's direction in 2024. Rest assured, I'm here to provide the latest information and guide you through the best decisions for selling your home. Regardless of the market conditions, my experience equips me to navigate each scenario successfully.

Feel free to reach out when you're ready to make a move, and I'll ensure you have the information you need for informed decision-making. Here's to a successful and fulfilling 2024!